The CFTC’s latest enforcement action against a Google employee for alleged insider trading on Polymarket marks another significant step in the Commission’s effort to apply traditional market abuse principles to prediction markets and event contracts.
When an AI system is trained on material nonpublic information, MNPI, and then used to inform or execute trades, the firm deploying that system may face insider trading liability, even if no human trader ever directly reviewed the underlying data. The SEC has not yet brought a case on this precise theory, but recent enforcement […]
Prediction markets were once on the margins of financial innovation, but that era is over. Sports-linked event contracts have become the flashpoint for a rapidly escalating conflict between federal commodities regulators, state gaming regimes, and the multibillion-dollar sportsbook industry. The dispute is often characterized as a preemption fight, and in one sense it is. But […]